When they chose not to ignore all the powerful tools they can make use of, policemen worldwide have (and will continue to) been able to track down criminals through Facebook, Twitter, with the help of the Internet or various software. This isn’t going to stop here. Soon, people will be able to discover criminals long before they do any harm, with the help of new crime prediction software that was developed by Richard Berk, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. The software is already being used in Baltimore and Philadelphia to predict which individuals on probation are most likely to murder or be murdered, Discovery News reports.
The software should be able to reduce the murder rate as well as many other crimes. The latest version of the software, which will be implemented in US capital, D.C, can also indentify individuals who are most likely to commit crimes other than murder. If the software is successful, it could greatly change the way sentencing recommendations and bail amounts are established.
“When a person goes on probation or parole they are supervised by an officer. The question that officer has to answer is ‘what level of supervision do you provide?’” said Berk.
So far, parole officers determined the level of supervision based on the person’s criminal record as well as their good judgement. According to Berk, the recent research will replace “those seat-of-the-pants calculations”.
Despite what the media would sometimes have us believe (showing murders on the news, in most cop movies and horror movies), in reality murders aren’t very common. There is about one murder for every 100,000 people and even in high risk groups the murder rate goes as high as 1 in 100. This is why most researchers thought it impossible to predict such a rare event. As difficult as it may be for the time being, advances in computer technology are making it sound more possible in the future. For several years, researchers assembled a dataset of over 60,000 crimes of various types, including homicides. By using an algorithm they developed, the researchers were able to ‘draw out a portrait’ of the typical person who commits homicide. This helped them in establishing which people were more likely to commit such a crime.
While Berk’s software examines two dozen variables, the most important details seem to be the age at which the crime was committed and the type of crime committed.
“People assume that if someone murdered then they will murder in the future,” said Berk. “But what really matters is what that person did as a young individual. If they committed armed robbery at age 14 that’s a good predictor. If they committed the same crime at age 30, that doesn’t predict very much.”
Predicting crimes sounds reassuring for most citizens, but very futuristic for realists. While Berk’s results are quite impressive, predicting rare events such as murder is extremely difficult for the time being.
Hehehe… that should put cops out of business. However, I am not sure on the success of such a thing. We are talking about human lives here and I am not sure what government with leaders in their right mind would trust machines to keep people 100% safe.